Retailing has been going through a challenging time in the last three or four years. The restrictions and disruption of Covid have given way to an extreme cost-of-living crisis and an almost apocalyptic sense of uncertainty on a geo-political level. The end of days in so many ways.

Retailers are struggling with everyday trade and making ends meet due to ever rising costs of doing business and consumers less willing to spend and looking either for a bargain or to cut their spending. This is obviously a generalisation and some consumers and some retailers are doing fine, but many are not. Reduction (and it will continue) in disposable income in the UK, the fight with inflation, Covid and a decade plus of austerity have altered capacity and actions. We see this starkly currently in the divergence of value and volume sales (in grocery in the diagram below).

Christmas though is meant to be a celebratory period, with scope to provide a relief for both consumers and retailers. The last three years have been a real balancing act due to restrictions and crises.

I have covered previous Christmas periods for the Economics Observatory previously, as in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Well, they asked me again and the Economics Observatory published my efforts on the 14^th December. The original can be found here. As before, reading the full post there is best. If you want to see them together then all my Economics Observatory and Conversation pieces on the topic can be found here.

There is undoubtedly money around and people are out celebrating Christmas and buying presents and treats. Some retailers as ever will do well. But there are more people than ever struggling and concerned in the wake of cost-of-living, inflation and interest rate rises. The disparities are now enormous and deeply worrying and cut through society, economy and geography at many levels. We need these addressed in both a more radical and sustained way. Some particular end of days can’t come quickly enough.